DynamisLab/docs/JFM_WYQ/ROUND3_BOTTOM_UP/04_KARMAN_PERFORMANCE.md

Round-3 revised candidate — Kármán performance

Status: targeted M04 revision completed; second-audit candidate, not final manuscript approval and not self-declared ready. This revision separates near-prose from provenance, makes Legacy Kármán Re100 the principal result, and retains V5 Re100 only as secondary support.

Section question and bounded answer

Question. Under the named Kármán contracts, what does learned wake-signature matching achieve, and what independent field-matching evidence remains after the signal objective is separated from spatial evaluation?

Bounded answer. Under the Legacy karman_re100 target/controlled/zero contract and its registered downstream ROI, the frozen PPO trajectory is closer to the target than physical zero in both complete-cycle mean-field and eight-slot phase-resolved L2; its normalized six-channel DTW is complementary evidence, not the field claim. V5 Re100 supplies secondary evidence that high-scoring checkpoint discovery repeats across five seeds while late retention varies, so the result remains named-condition field matching rather than a pooled or robust cross-chain conclusion.

Layer 1 — concise near-prose draft

The principal comparison is the Legacy Kármán Re100 target, physical zero and frozen PPO trajectory, evaluated within one Legacy solver and geometry contract. Here Re100 is the code convention U_0(2D)/\nu=100 (U_0=0.01, D=20, \nu=0.004), equivalent to single-cylinder Re_D=50; it is not the V5 Re100 case under another name. In the registered rectangle -6\le (x-x_s)/D\le14, |(y-y_0)/D|\le5, with Legacy x_s=800, the controlled field is closer to the Legacy target than the corresponding physical-zero field. [Legacy field authority; Module 03]

The signal result is consistent with that field comparison but does not define it. Under the same 30-step window, lag channel and target-channel normalization, the Legacy controlled role has a six-channel target-normalized DTW similarity score of 0.932899, higher than the zero role’s 0.625127; the corresponding native reward-compatible similarity scores are 0.952132 for controlled and 0.688244 for zero. Higher scores indicate greater similarity. These are role-local Legacy quantities, not V5 scores, and they are never interpreted as errors or distances. DTW records signal alignment and similarity; it is not a spatial norm, physical delay or causal response. [Legacy Re100 dtw_summary.json; Module 03]

The independent field result is carried by spatial L2. For complete accepted cycles, the Legacy controlled mean-field error is E_mean=0.085771, versus 0.475206 for zero, giving \eta_mean=0.819508. The corresponding eight-slot phase diagnostic is E_phase8=0.112680, versus 0.630878 for zero, giving \eta_phase8=0.821392. Here E_mean is the U_0-normalized area-RMS difference between complete-cycle arithmetic mean fields, whereas E_phase8 is the RMS over eight independently phased nearest saved boundary snapshots; neither uses a solver-exact persisted common-fluid mask. Thus, for this named Legacy comparator and ROI, the field result agrees across persistent mean and phase-resolved diagnostics, without implying that all downstream flow states are identical. [Legacy wake_l2.py row; Module 03]

The agreement has a defined dynamic boundary. Legacy target and controlled roles each contain eight complete-cycle fields and nine accepted crossings, while zero contains four complete cycles and five crossings; the controlled relative frequency mismatch is 0.004831, compared with 0.376794 for zero. This supports the bounded reading that the controlled trajectory is closer to the target under both declared field estimands, but the phase metric remains a one-snapshot-per-slot diagnostic rather than a repeated-crossing ensemble. The companion V5 kar_re100 package is secondary: five seeds repeatedly found high-reward checkpoints, and the retained deterministic evaluation selected seed 45 with reward 0.931258 and DTW 0.918458; late retention ratios ranged from 0.162632 to 0.858143. This supports a discovery/retention distinction, not Legacy/V5 pooling or a general convergence claim. [Legacy metadata; V5 retained evaluation authority]

The result therefore hands two bounded questions forward. To Module 05, the Legacy Re100 field comparison establishes the performance target for testing whether a reduced action law reproduces the controlled trajectory under the same Legacy plant and window; it does not identify action-law complexity. To Module 06, the exact Legacy mean/phase L2 roles and their separate windows provide the performance baseline for mean/dynamic field organization, while the field metric remains geometry-guarded and descriptive rather than causal. [Module 03; current field authorities]

Layer 2 — compact provenance ledger

Claim / quantity	Exact source and artifact	Chain; solver/geometry; case/seed/role; Re	Comparator and metric/estimand	ROI/window and status
Principal target/zero/controlled roles	src/drl_pinball/data/reproduction/legacy/karman_re100/{target,zero,controlled}/metadata.json; schema drl-pinball-legacy-acquisition-v2	Legacy solver/API; 1280×512; karman_re100; controlled frozen model d1a3o12_re100.zip with frozen norm.json; Re code 100 = U0(2D)/nu=100, Re_D=50	target live builder trajectory; zero physical-zero/uncontrolled counter-bias trajectory; controlled frozen-policy trajectory	SI=800, 480 warm-up, 160 post-step boundaries; 8 phase fields; read, authority-bound, artifact-audit deferred for raw payloads
Registered field ROI	src/drl_pinball/eval/wake_l2.py, schema drl-pinball-wake-l2-v2; Module 03 §4	Legacy; D=20, x_s=800, conservative solid extent 636	fixed inclusive ROI; no outcome-dependent mask	lattice bounds x=680..1080, y=156..355; geometry-guarded ROI, solver-exact mask not persisted; read and agreed with Module 03
Legacy complete-cycle mean L2	Exact _evaluate row from current Legacy roles, using wake_l2.py; row values reproduced from bound role artifacts	Legacy; Re code 100; controlled vs target and zero vs target; no seed field in Legacy role	E_mean_ctl=0.08577102245825166; E_mean_zero=0.47520632385441813; eta_mean=0.8195078260689812; U0-normalized ROI RMS difference of complete-cycle mean fields	accepted rising centre-probe u_y crossings; target 9, controlled 9, zero 5; 8, 8 and 4 complete cycles; current authority value, raw artifact audit deferred
Legacy phase L2	Same exact _evaluate row and phase_fields.npz role schema	Legacy; Re code 100; controlled/zero versus target	E_phase8_ctl=0.11267999504986256; E_phase8_zero=0.6308775162147815; eta_phase8=0.8213916455195072; eight-slot nearest-boundary RMS	independent role phasing, canonical slots; one snapshot per slot, not repeated-crossing ensemble; current authority value, artifact-audit deferred
Legacy current/normalized DTW similarity	controlled/dtw_summary.json, zero/dtw_summary.json, target/dtw_summary.json; native implementation legacy_test/core/dtw_metrics.py and offline metrics contract	Legacy; karman_re100; controlled and zero role histories versus target; no V5 transfer	target-normalized six-channel cycle DTW similarity score: controlled 0.9328993565511687, zero 0.6251268882807846; native similarity score: controlled 0.9521319744438127, zero 0.6882437288676819; higher is better and controlled is higher under both contracts; these are not errors or distances	historical window/CONV_LEN=30, lag channel 3, target-channel max-abs normalization; read, current role authority, artifact-audit deferred
Dynamic boundary	Legacy role metadata plus the exact field-evaluation row	Legacy Re100; target/controlled/zero	controlled relative frequency mismatch 0.004831181571494927; zero 0.3767940098934097; period CV controlled 0.00020952970987246327, zero 0.06474211289191471	physical time is Legacy-relative; relative same-case diagnostic only; bounded observation, not cross-chain frequency evidence
V5 secondary five-seed support	src/drl_pinball/train/results/latest/tables/latest_results_summary.json; latest_eval_summary.csv; train/output/kar_re100_seed41–45/meta.json	V5/CelerisLab; 2000×600; kar_re100; seeds 41–45; code Re100 = Re_D=50	best rewards 0.9266385, 0.9301960, 0.9160065, 0.9221958, 0.9411612; selected retained evaluation seed 45 reward 0.931258, DTW 0.918458	500 iterations; retained evaluation 360 steps, last-180 tail; historical legacy-policy-v1 compatibility, not current-contract retraining; read authority, artifact-audit deferred
V5 retention support	Same V5 latest_results_summary.json retention records	V5; same five named seeds and case	validated last-50 retention ratios 0.6703388, 0.2004286, 0.1626321, 0.8581434, 0.6373129	training-retention diagnostic; best-versus-retained distinction explicit; normalizer pairing required only for reproducibility/selected-policy panel, not for this textual seed-retention claim
V5 Re400 boundary, if retained in figure	Current summary authority and current wake-L2 summary authority	V5/CelerisLab; kar_re400, seed 43; code Re400; support chain only	E_mean_ctl=0.177469 vs zero 0.221541, but E_phase8_ctl=0.490471 vs zero 0.450626; eta_mean≈0.1989, eta_phase8=-0.08842	same periodic field contract; current authority diagnostic, artifact-audit deferred; do not use as Legacy principal evidence

Authority/interface reconciliation with Module 03

• Agreement: Module 03 and wake_l2.py agree on drl-pinball-wake-l2-v2, registered [-6D,+14D]×[-5D,+5D] ROI, D=20, E_mean as complete-cycle mean-field RMS, E_phase8 as eight independently phased nearest-snapshot diagnostic, eta=1-E_role/E_zero, and geometry-guarded/no-persisted-exact-mask status.
• Agreement: Module 03’s Legacy Re100 role semantics agree with the current metadata: Legacy target is live builder-generated, zero is physical-zero/uncontrolled, controlled is frozen Legacy PPO; Legacy roles use their own chain and are not V5 continuations.
• Conflict/clarification: Module 03 says every role must carry target identity/hash when available; Legacy metadata binds run-generated target-array hashes separately for target, controlled and zero. These hashes differ because the trajectories are independently generated; they must not be treated as one shared target identity without an explicit target-role reconciliation. This is a provenance clarification, not a numerical conflict.
• Deferral: Module 03’s normalizer/VecNormalize contract applies to V5 retained policy reproducibility. It does not condition the Legacy field text above, whose frozen Legacy norm.json is directly bound in the controlled and zero metadata. Same-selection V5 model/normalizer verification is therefore a selected-policy reproducibility/panel dependency, not a blocker to the Legacy principal result.

Figure, equation and table contracts

1. Principal target/zero/controlled Legacy plate. Show Legacy Re100 target, zero and controlled fields with chain, role, phase slot/window and fixed vorticity limits. It supports visual comparator context and can accompany the exact L2 rows; it does not prove mask exactness, causality or V5 equivalence.
2. L2-first result panel. Report Legacy Re100 absolute E_mean, E_phase8 and zero-relative eta before the DTW companion. Caption must state ROI, U0, accepted-crossing window, eight-slot nearest-snapshot semantics and geometry-guarded mask status. It does not establish a universal cloak score or repeated-crossing uncertainty.
3. DTW companion. Show Legacy controlled/zero target-normalized DTW similarity scores and label native versus target-normalized similarity pipelines. State explicitly that higher is better (0.932899 controlled versus 0.625127 zero normalized; 0.952132 controlled versus 0.688244 zero native) and never label these values as errors or distances. The panel supports signal-level matching under the declared window; it does not become field L2, a delay or a causal test.
4. V5 seed/retention inset. Show best discovery and late-retention spread only as secondary support, with selected seed 45, historical compatibility path and best/retained labels. A same-selection model/normalizer pair is required for a reproducibility or selected-policy panel, not for the textual statement that retention varies.
5. Equations. Use Module 03 canonical E_mean, E_phase8 and eta definitions; do not add a second DTW equation here unless Module 03 requires it. Distinguish spatial L2 from any pipeline Level-2/Level-3 or Stage-3 validation gate.

Claim ladder

Green — supported at named scope

• Legacy karman_re100 controlled is closer to its target than its physical-zero comparator in both the complete-cycle mean-field and eight-slot phase-resolved registered spatial L2 rows above.
• Legacy controlled target-normalized DTW similarity is higher than zero under the declared role-local normalized cycle contract; native similarity is reported separately, and higher is better for both.
• V5 Re100 has five retained seeds with repeated best-checkpoint discovery and seed-dependent late retention; this is secondary support, not pooled field evidence.

Amber — bounded interpretation

• The Legacy Re100 result is consistent with learned wake-signature matching producing a controlled trajectory whose declared downstream field is closer to target over the registered ROI.
• Agreement of mean and phase L2 under this Legacy role supports a stronger named-case reading than DTW alone, while phase-slot and mask limitations remain attached.
• The V5 seed pattern motivates separating discovery from retention and does not transfer a V5 result into the Legacy action-law interpretation.

Red — prohibited without new evidence

• A global statement that field matching always survives beyond reward, pooled Legacy/V5 values, or a single cross-chain Kármán score.
• DTW as physical delay, causal response, field equivalence or mechanism.
• Robust/general convergence, universal Re transfer, stability, optimal sensor placement, exact solver-mask L2, or statistical uncertainty from the current phase slots.
• V5 selected-policy reproducibility claims without the matching model/normalizer pair; this restriction does not block the Legacy principal text.

Imports, exports and bridge

Imports from Module 03: canonical role/chain vocabulary; Legacy/V5 solver and Re boundaries; registered ROI; E_mean, E_phase8, eta, phase and mask semantics; spatial-L2 versus pipeline validation-level distinction. This revision reconciles those definitions above and records the one target-hash clarification.

Exact exports to Module 05 — Kármán action law: use Legacy karman_re100 target/zero/controlled as the principal closed-loop performance comparator; preserve its Legacy solver/API, Re_code=100/Re_D=50, frozen policy and norm.json, SI=800, 480 warm-up plus 160 retained boundaries, complete-cycle window and role-local target/zero semantics. The field result is a performance arbiter for any reduced law; it does not itself identify a necessary, causal or unique action component.

Exact exports to Module 06 — Kármán field/CCD: use Legacy Re100 E_mean_ctl=0.08577102245825166 versus zero 0.47520632385441813, eta_mean=0.8195078260689812, and E_phase8_ctl=0.11267999504986256 versus zero 0.6308775162147815, eta_phase8=0.8213916455195072, with the registered Legacy ROI and geometry-guarded mask status. Treat these as separate mean and phase estimands; do not infer action correlation or causality from them. V5 seed/retention and Re400 disagreement remain support-chain context only. Although the standardized PPO and corrected CCD mean errors are numerically close and share the same nominal x extent, they arise from different role acquisitions and role sets, retained windows, masks, and weighting/normalization contracts; they are different estimands, are not combined arithmetically, and must not be described as replication, validation, agreement or triangulation.

Final bridge. The named Legacy comparator establishes what the learned policy achieved in the registered Kármán wake; Module 05 can now test action-law compression against that same result, and Module 06 can organize mean and phase field differences without turning the field metric into a causal explanation.

Genuine blockers and scope-local deferrals

• No blocker to this section text: external/symlink-backed raw fields and absent solver-exact masks are artifact-audit deferred because current metadata, evaluator code and authority-bound rows identify the roles, comparator, window and exact summary values without conflict.
• Panel/raw-audit dependency: a newly redrawn field panel or independent artifact audit still requires access to the raw role payloads and exact manifest/hash check. Do not claim that this pass performed that audit.
• V5 reproducibility dependency only: same-selection best_model.zip plus matching VecNormalize is required to reproduce or redraw a selected V5 policy panel; it does not condition the Legacy principal field/DTW text or the textual seed-retention observation.
• No unresolved Module 03 metric conflict: canonical definitions agree; the target-array hash distinction is recorded as a clarification.

Coverage ledger

Status	Sources inspected	Evidence status / reason
read	Revised .cursor/rules/jfm-round3-section-drafting.mdc; Round3 master and quality; current Module 03; Round1 DRL/control, coverage audit and case-metrics dossiers; WAKE_L2_AND_SENSOR_PLACEMENT_RESEARCH_NOTES.md; RESULTS.md, CLAIMS.md, WRITING_HANDOFF.md, eval/README.md; wake_l2.py; Legacy Re100 metadata and DTW summaries; V5 result tables and Re100 metadata/calibration	Full read; current authority values extracted where stated; raw NPZ/model binaries not independently audited
mapped	data/reproduction_plots/manifest.json; current plot navigation and external role paths	Role/phase-slot mapping read; derived views, not numerical authority
not-covered	New CFD, retraining, external literature, independent mask reconstruction, new panel generation	Outside this revision; no claim depends on them
external-inaccessible	External Optane root is symlink-backed and raw field payloads are permission-restricted in ordinary inspection	Authority-led artifact-audit deferred; exact role/summary rows were still obtained through the bound evaluator and metadata

Anti-index / anti-AI audit

• Layer 1 is five concise prose-like paragraphs with source tags and scientific cadence; it does not contain repeated bold template labels, giant inline evidence blocks or training-path inventories.
• Layer 2 carries the complete provenance ledger, including chain, solver/geometry, case/role/seed, Re, comparator, metric, ROI/window, status and deferral state.
• The principal result is Legacy Re100; V5 is visibly secondary, and the 23-row aggregate is not used as the principal claim.
• L2 remains primary and DTW complementary; native and normalized DTW, mean and phase8, Legacy and V5 are not pooled.
• Best checkpoint, retained evaluation and late retention are separated; VecNormalize is scoped to V5 reproducibility/panel dependency rather than treated as a universal blocker.
• No global beyond-reward claim, causal language, generalization claim, invented number or silent target-hash merge is used.

Disposition: revised candidate submitted for second audit; not self-declared ready.